* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL052021 06/30/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 51 55 56 57 61 60 66 70 76 80 83 85 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 51 55 56 57 61 60 66 70 73 78 80 82 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 40 45 49 49 48 49 53 61 69 72 74 78 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 4 7 9 7 10 9 15 11 9 3 10 8 8 6 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 4 6 8 12 12 7 3 -2 5 5 6 6 4 3 0 SHEAR DIR 358 343 324 352 11 296 294 297 310 293 299 258 269 249 283 261 260 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.4 28.0 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.5 28.5 28.3 28.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 135 135 137 140 139 134 140 159 156 160 161 144 141 141 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 135 135 137 140 139 134 140 157 150 154 153 130 125 126 120 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.9 -54.4 -54.2 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 9 9 10 9 9 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 68 67 66 69 69 62 58 58 60 62 66 68 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 22 21 22 23 25 26 24 21 21 16 18 18 20 22 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR 74 81 83 74 64 66 63 54 43 21 8 10 -3 3 11 -16 -15 200 MB DIV 45 52 74 91 77 56 26 19 41 27 23 26 69 -9 58 -6 48 700-850 TADV -9 -8 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 7 18 -4 -4 -2 -4 3 10 25 14 LAND (KM) 1098 943 824 718 649 563 291 336 105 30 76 122 39 59 252 320 196 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.8 12.1 13.4 14.9 16.7 18.0 19.0 20.2 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.8 44.9 47.0 49.1 51.1 56.0 61.3 66.4 71.1 74.5 76.9 79.3 82.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 21 21 20 23 25 26 25 21 15 13 14 13 10 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 20 25 22 35 31 25 24 20 32 36 92 58 36 21 33 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCL INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 31. 34. 37. 38. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -3. -10. -9. -9. -7. -5. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 21. 25. 26. 27. 31. 30. 36. 40. 46. 50. 53. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.4 42.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 INVEST 06/30/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.77 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.15 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.69 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.55 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.82 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.76 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.48 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 23.7% 13.6% 8.7% 5.5% 10.5% 13.9% 19.8% Logistic: 6.0% 25.0% 12.3% 4.5% 2.9% 9.4% 8.5% 14.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 24.9% 5.7% 0.5% 0.2% 3.2% 2.4% 4.3% Consensus: 4.8% 24.5% 10.5% 4.6% 2.9% 7.7% 8.2% 12.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 INVEST 06/30/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 INVEST 06/30/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 42 46 51 55 56 57 61 60 66 70 73 78 80 82 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 41 46 50 51 52 56 55 61 65 68 73 75 77 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 39 43 44 45 49 48 54 58 61 66 68 70 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 33 34 35 39 38 44 48 51 56 58 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT