* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP212020 11/19/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 35 32 30 26 23 19 17 16 16 16 17 18 20 21 20 V (KT) LAND 40 38 35 32 30 26 23 19 17 16 16 16 17 18 20 21 20 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 36 34 31 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 17 18 17 15 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 5 3 3 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 268 267 268 258 290 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.4 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.4 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 128 125 125 123 118 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 49 49 45 44 44 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -27 -34 -33 -36 -39 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 -35 -57 -75 -63 -14 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 8 9 7 4 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1057 1106 1164 1236 1314 1489 1652 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.9 119.9 121.0 122.0 124.2 126.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -17. -21. -23. -24. -24. -24. -23. -22. -20. -19. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.8 117.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212020 POLO 11/19/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.54 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -44.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.10 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212020 POLO 11/19/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##