* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/15/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 85 93 101 108 116 112 105 95 85 77 74 74 76 78 80 80 V (KT) LAND 75 85 93 101 108 116 70 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 85 93 101 106 110 68 39 31 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 1 5 4 5 15 14 9 9 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 2 2 -2 -2 -1 -2 1 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 327 258 180 165 133 85 90 102 56 43 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.8 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 154 151 147 147 152 148 149 144 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 147 150 146 141 141 144 141 142 138 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 7 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 66 67 67 71 78 76 79 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 28 29 31 34 28 24 18 14 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 83 82 90 95 122 143 177 177 146 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 95 97 118 97 96 102 92 68 60 64 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 3 2 2 1 -1 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 419 439 392 299 206 43 -85 -172 -167 -111 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.1 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.1 78.9 79.6 80.5 81.3 82.8 84.1 85.4 86.8 88.3 89.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 55 52 40 28 29 30 5 4 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 51.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 1. -4. -13. -20. -24. -25. -25. -25. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 16. 15. 11. 6. 1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 18. 26. 33. 41. 37. 30. 20. 10. 2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 13.3 78.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/15/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.87 17.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.91 8.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.31 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.85 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 5.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.43 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 233.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.66 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.42 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.65 2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 5.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.4% 63.3% 50.6% 40.4% 15.9% 40.1% 26.5% 18.6% Logistic: 50.1% 76.4% 65.4% 62.7% 42.6% 44.2% 29.2% 23.7% Bayesian: 67.5% 87.1% 83.4% 64.2% 51.8% 63.3% 18.2% 4.2% Consensus: 52.7% 75.6% 66.5% 55.7% 36.8% 49.2% 24.6% 15.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/15/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/15/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 14( 18) 28( 41) 31( 59) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 17 69( 74) 58( 89) 34( 93) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 85 93 101 108 116 70 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 75 74 82 90 97 105 59 30 20 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 12HR AGO 75 72 71 79 86 94 48 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 72 80 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 75 85 76 70 67 69 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 75 85 93 84 78 74 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS