* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/14/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 64 72 84 96 105 101 92 83 80 77 80 82 84 84 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 64 72 84 96 82 46 33 29 28 28 31 33 35 35 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 60 67 85 100 88 47 33 29 27 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 7 4 5 4 8 10 10 6 10 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -4 -3 -2 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 293 268 289 2 43 121 77 68 71 73 62 74 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.0 28.7 29.4 29.3 28.7 28.7 27.7 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 155 158 158 151 146 157 155 145 146 132 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 152 148 151 154 154 146 139 150 148 138 141 127 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 4 5 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 72 72 70 68 70 70 71 73 76 74 75 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 19 20 23 26 31 33 27 20 14 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 66 73 85 95 99 134 152 178 151 129 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 118 105 96 108 90 93 104 99 74 59 79 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 -2 -3 0 0 1 0 -1 0 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 230 284 342 395 401 257 92 -24 -162 -192 -74 -2 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.7 13.3 12.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.4 77.0 77.6 78.4 79.2 80.9 82.4 83.7 85.0 86.2 87.6 89.3 90.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 47 49 49 46 35 24 34 5 4 14 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 25. 26. 26. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 13. 16. 9. -1. -9. -13. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 27. 39. 51. 60. 56. 47. 38. 35. 32. 35. 37. 39. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.5 76.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/14/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 11.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.77 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.32 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.54 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.62 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.80 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.78 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.67 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 61% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 50.1% 36.0% 17.7% 7.1% 31.0% 39.5% 60.9% Logistic: 18.6% 65.4% 46.9% 27.8% 11.9% 33.2% 27.6% 39.2% Bayesian: 15.4% 51.4% 33.5% 6.9% 4.3% 47.9% 61.5% 65.8% Consensus: 15.6% 55.6% 38.8% 17.5% 7.8% 37.4% 42.9% 55.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/14/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/14/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 9( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 10( 10) 21( 29) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 57 64 72 84 96 82 46 33 29 28 28 31 33 35 35 18HR AGO 45 44 50 57 65 77 89 75 39 26 22 21 21 24 26 28 28 12HR AGO 45 42 41 48 56 68 80 66 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 43 55 67 53 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT