* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/11/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 64 59 53 41 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 66 64 59 47 35 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 66 64 59 53 35 34 30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 13 13 18 19 28 40 40 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 11 12 9 6 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 310 280 289 276 264 286 292 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.8 25.9 24.2 22.6 23.1 26.3 26.8 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 121 112 98 89 91 116 121 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 107 98 86 79 80 99 102 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -54.0 -54.6 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.5 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 4 3 5 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 54 50 36 30 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 21 18 16 12 10 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 36 34 35 33 7 -31 -51 -84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 24 13 3 -4 14 -24 -52 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 2 5 17 22 5 8 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 191 125 67 26 0 -26 129 204 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.7 27.5 28.2 28.9 30.0 30.9 31.3 31.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.8 83.6 83.4 83.0 82.7 81.6 80.1 78.5 76.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 8 1 0 0 0 11 21 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 13 CX,CY: 3/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -25. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -17. -19. -20. -21. -22. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -17. -24. -31. -33. -34. -35. -35. -34. -34. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -6. -12. -24. -37. -52. -64. -68. -70. -71. -71. -69. -66. -64. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 25.8 83.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/11/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.41 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.68 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.59 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 379.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.49 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.17 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 15.9% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 2.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 6.1% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/11/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/11/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 64 59 47 35 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 62 57 45 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 56 44 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 43 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT