* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THETA AL302020 11/11/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 53 50 48 46 41 41 35 27 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 57 53 50 48 46 41 41 35 27 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 58 55 52 49 45 43 43 43 41 37 33 30 31 34 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 58 50 47 50 45 35 34 27 25 31 28 27 10 9 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 3 -2 -5 -4 -6 -7 1 -1 -2 -6 2 -3 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 234 232 243 251 255 283 280 7 31 13 12 338 279 198 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.5 24.2 23.9 23.8 23.2 23.0 22.5 22.2 22.1 21.8 21.3 20.8 19.8 19.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 100 98 96 96 93 92 88 86 84 84 82 81 77 75 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 88 87 86 85 85 83 82 78 75 74 74 72 72 70 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.3 -56.9 -56.6 -56.5 -57.3 -58.0 -58.1 -57.6 -57.7 -57.8 -57.7 -58.0 -58.6 -58.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 -0.2 -0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 38 39 40 41 42 44 47 46 48 51 47 44 47 57 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 26 26 27 28 26 26 24 22 18 14 11 9 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 41 42 41 33 59 36 23 -8 -24 -27 -65 -98 -66 12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 31 48 37 28 57 25 36 -30 -27 -25 -11 9 -2 71 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -8 -5 -11 -10 9 4 5 1 1 9 9 4 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1999 1930 1863 1774 1700 1510 1320 1162 1065 1004 975 985 997 903 795 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.6 31.2 31.8 32.2 32.5 33.1 34.0 35.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.1 34.3 33.4 32.4 31.5 29.1 26.6 24.4 22.9 22.0 21.2 20.5 19.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 11 11 8 5 4 5 6 8 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -23. -26. -30. -34. -36. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. -21. -24. -26. -28. -29. -30. -28. -27. -27. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 19. 19. 18. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 1. 0. -2. -2. -6. -10. -17. -23. -27. -29. -25. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -19. -19. -25. -33. -44. -52. -56. -57. -51. -54. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.4 35.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL302020 THETA 11/11/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 366.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 94.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL302020 THETA 11/11/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL302020 THETA 11/11/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 57 53 50 48 46 41 41 35 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 55 52 50 48 43 43 37 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 51 49 44 44 38 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 46 41 41 35 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT