* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/08/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 65 69 69 69 69 70 66 63 58 54 51 47 45 40 V (KT) LAND 55 59 50 55 58 59 59 59 59 55 52 48 44 40 36 35 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 52 56 58 58 57 60 62 62 59 57 54 50 46 41 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 31 27 18 15 13 7 12 10 20 14 21 23 26 27 34 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 -1 2 0 -5 -1 1 2 1 2 6 0 3 8 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 242 249 255 246 226 284 333 321 306 303 298 288 259 277 272 269 259 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 28.9 27.1 26.4 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 154 154 149 124 116 124 123 122 121 119 119 117 116 114 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 144 140 138 132 109 102 106 104 102 102 100 99 98 97 95 93 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 3 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 76 73 71 70 66 64 68 65 61 58 53 52 46 42 42 40 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 26 27 29 27 26 27 27 26 26 25 25 25 24 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 146 147 170 190 189 163 154 99 82 55 48 32 37 41 27 -11 -18 200 MB DIV 103 85 94 133 103 3 -19 -9 0 -16 24 -4 2 -49 -34 14 49 700-850 TADV 8 22 20 15 6 5 5 0 -1 2 0 8 -1 -1 0 1 8 LAND (KM) 148 48 -33 34 93 76 79 139 168 178 175 159 149 134 126 111 105 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.2 22.0 22.8 23.5 24.5 25.0 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.2 79.7 79.2 79.3 79.4 80.5 81.9 83.0 83.5 83.8 83.9 83.9 83.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 7 7 6 4 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 78 54 38 38 34 13 8 18 15 13 11 9 8 6 5 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 14 CX,CY: 11/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 443 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -8. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 14. 14. 14. 15. 11. 8. 3. -1. -4. -8. -10. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.4 80.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/08/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.10 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.33 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.28 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.75 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.79 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.57 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.66 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 28.3% 15.6% 8.8% 5.2% 9.8% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 16.1% 7.6% 1.2% 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 6.1% 14.9% 7.8% 3.3% 1.8% 3.6% 4.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/08/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/08/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 50 55 58 59 59 59 59 55 52 48 44 40 36 35 30 18HR AGO 55 54 45 50 53 54 54 54 54 50 47 43 39 35 31 30 25 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 59 60 60 60 60 56 53 49 45 41 37 36 31 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 49 49 49 49 45 42 38 34 30 26 25 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT