* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP202020 11/05/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 33 29 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 33 29 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 35 30 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 38 39 38 37 37 43 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 9 5 3 4 8 2 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 229 237 240 230 224 217 225 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.1 26.0 26.3 26.2 26.2 25.9 25.7 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 124 123 125 124 124 121 119 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.4 -53.6 -54.1 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 55 51 49 41 36 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 16 15 14 11 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 0 -14 -16 -9 -14 14 13 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 40 22 6 -8 -10 -5 17 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 16 14 16 8 0 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1199 1245 1296 1341 1385 1527 1672 1819 1973 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.7 18.8 18.9 18.5 17.8 17.0 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.3 122.2 123.0 123.8 124.5 126.0 127.2 128.3 129.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -21. -31. -38. -43. -46. -48. -48. -49. -53. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -17. -18. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -11. -15. -23. -34. -48. -59. -65. -68. -71. -72. -72. -72. -75. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.0 121.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202020 ODALYS 11/05/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.53 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.06 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202020 ODALYS 11/05/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##