* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/04/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 32 32 33 38 44 47 55 56 59 67 72 67 62 62 64 V (KT) LAND 40 34 31 29 28 34 39 43 50 52 47 55 60 55 50 50 52 V (KT) LGEM 40 34 31 29 28 32 37 41 42 40 36 34 32 30 30 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 10 9 5 6 9 15 30 39 38 25 14 17 11 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 0 1 2 16 13 13 5 -3 4 -1 0 0 3 6 SHEAR DIR 73 77 103 59 59 215 276 239 258 262 269 272 326 2 22 309 261 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.0 29.1 28.5 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 159 157 152 153 150 155 157 157 151 152 142 136 136 134 130 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 154 151 145 144 140 147 149 148 138 134 123 118 118 116 112 107 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 4 3 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 84 84 84 83 83 82 77 74 70 62 56 47 43 40 40 37 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 16 14 13 13 16 18 24 24 26 29 30 26 23 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 151 177 179 160 139 117 141 123 134 161 170 160 164 134 92 49 39 200 MB DIV 147 154 149 118 96 107 132 94 74 37 37 53 9 -12 8 9 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 6 2 0 2 8 7 13 18 26 11 2 0 -2 2 3 LAND (KM) -195 -187 -146 -102 -48 53 130 256 186 30 14 108 127 190 259 350 282 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.9 15.3 16.3 17.4 18.7 20.3 21.9 23.3 24.3 25.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.3 86.0 86.7 87.2 87.8 88.0 86.9 85.1 83.4 82.0 81.4 81.6 82.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 6 9 11 11 9 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 6 10 8 38 39 46 70 75 87 75 73 47 29 23 26 21 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 4. -0. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -9. -5. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. 1. 0. 2. 6. 6. 0. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -8. -7. -2. 4. 7. 15. 16. 19. 27. 32. 27. 22. 22. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.8 85.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/04/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.20 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.68 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.75 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.90 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.81 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 132.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.81 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 14.8% 9.3% 5.8% 4.0% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 5.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.9% 3.0% 5.7% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 2.0% Consensus: 1.0% 7.4% 3.6% 2.2% 1.7% 4.2% 2.1% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/04/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/04/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 34 31 29 28 34 39 43 50 52 47 55 60 55 50 50 52 18HR AGO 40 39 36 34 33 39 44 48 55 57 52 60 65 60 55 55 57 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 39 44 48 55 57 52 60 65 60 55 55 57 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 35 40 44 51 53 48 56 61 56 51 51 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT