* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/02/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 93 97 99 99 96 93 91 90 85 82 83 87 94 104 106 108 V (KT) LAND 85 93 97 99 84 52 35 29 28 27 27 27 33 41 50 52 54 V (KT) LGEM 85 95 101 103 89 54 35 29 27 27 27 27 36 46 58 69 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 16 15 17 14 13 10 6 5 2 2 6 7 11 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -1 0 0 -3 0 2 -1 3 4 2 3 -3 3 4 SHEAR DIR 150 144 129 115 96 94 61 68 86 97 196 296 348 312 299 327 6 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 156 156 158 163 164 158 153 157 158 156 151 159 161 163 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 149 147 147 149 154 155 150 143 146 145 143 140 149 150 151 150 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 3 3 2 3 3 5 4 8 6 8 6 700-500 MB RH 83 84 84 81 81 80 81 81 76 83 82 80 70 64 57 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 27 26 26 23 20 18 16 13 13 14 16 19 25 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 108 106 116 123 127 122 128 158 148 141 118 119 103 118 134 155 152 200 MB DIV 94 129 147 167 173 146 73 72 79 93 87 82 65 51 35 53 44 700-850 TADV 3 5 7 5 3 2 0 -1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 226 156 86 38 -8 -66 -173 -163 -116 -68 -35 -10 43 128 198 308 283 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.7 14.5 14.4 14.2 14.0 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.1 81.8 82.4 82.8 83.3 84.1 85.1 86.2 87.2 88.1 88.5 88.6 88.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 4 2 2 5 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 41 38 38 41 34 38 5 22 38 40 43 42 41 73 85 81 82 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -2. 1. 4. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -19. -21. -21. -18. -14. -7. -8. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 12. 14. 14. 11. 8. 6. 5. 0. -3. -2. 2. 9. 19. 21. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 14.8 81.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/02/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.93 17.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.53 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.26 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.88 6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.62 3.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.47 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.86 4.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.34 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 142.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.85 3.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 39% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 5.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 38.8% 58.4% 45.8% 30.3% 8.2% 24.4% 17.5% 0.0% Logistic: 45.3% 73.8% 49.8% 54.4% 47.4% 61.6% 55.2% 57.2% Bayesian: 68.7% 87.0% 67.9% 61.6% 40.5% 47.1% 2.8% 34.1% Consensus: 50.9% 73.1% 54.5% 48.8% 32.0% 44.4% 25.2% 30.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/02/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/02/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 20( 28) 0( 28) 0( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 37 15( 46) 0( 46) 0( 46) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 93 97 99 84 52 35 29 28 27 27 27 33 41 50 52 54 18HR AGO 85 84 88 90 75 43 26 20 19 18 18 18 24 32 41 43 45 12HR AGO 85 82 81 83 68 36 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 60 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 34 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 93 84 78 75 58 41 35 34 33 33 33 39 47 56 58 60 IN 12HR 85 93 97 88 82 78 61 55 54 53 53 53 59 67 76 78 80