* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/28/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 87 81 73 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 88 59 45 37 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 88 60 45 37 34 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 19 28 35 56 95 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 9 13 13 13 4 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 249 255 261 250 247 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 24.6 25.0 23.0 20.2 19.9 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 108 112 100 88 88 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 104 110 98 86 84 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 -0.4 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 55 54 51 54 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 20 23 22 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 19 72 86 110 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 111 154 176 114 66 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 32 59 109 106 134 21 -397 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 129 8 -232 -319 -243 194 290 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.0 30.3 32.6 34.8 36.9 40.1 43.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.1 89.0 86.9 83.0 79.2 69.0 58.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 29 34 38 40 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 18 CX,CY: 8/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -21. -29. -36. -42. -47. -50. -54. -57. -59. -60. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -8. -14. -31. -53. -58. -61. -61. -61. -64. -65. -67. -69. -73. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. -1. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -9. -17. -41. -80. -90.-100.-107.-112.-118.-121.-122.-121.-124.-132. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 28.0 91.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/28/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 440.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 125.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.77 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/28/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/28/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 0( 12) 0( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 88 59 45 37 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 60 46 38 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 72 64 47 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 72 55 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 54 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 IN 6HR 90 88 79 73 70 56 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT