* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/27/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 64 67 68 70 69 64 45 40 36 31 26 21 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 67 70 73 74 76 45 33 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 64 64 66 67 68 42 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 4 4 9 11 18 30 61 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 0 2 4 10 17 12 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 336 1 199 241 252 257 272 245 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.1 25.2 23.8 18.7 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 142 138 135 127 112 105 84 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 132 127 124 118 106 102 81 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 64 63 57 53 55 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 23 22 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 21 14 3 4 43 118 113 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 4 39 49 60 99 162 102 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -7 0 6 16 65 153 108 -132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -4 126 257 401 360 14 -337 -4 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.3 23.3 24.6 25.9 29.5 33.9 38.2 42.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.0 89.8 90.7 90.9 91.1 89.3 84.1 75.3 66.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 16 25 36 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 19 20 30 7 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -5. -23. -26. -29. -33. -36. -40. -43. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 7. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 8. 10. 9. 4. -15. -20. -24. -29. -34. -39. -43. -46. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 21.3 89.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/27/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.77 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.15 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.84 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.41 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.62 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.30 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 18.5% 12.4% 9.5% 6.7% 10.0% 8.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.4% 22.4% 13.2% 8.5% 7.9% 5.3% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.4% 5.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 15.6% 8.8% 6.4% 4.9% 5.1% 2.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/27/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/27/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 5( 9) 5( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 29( 29) 0( 29) 0( 29) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 67 70 73 74 76 45 33 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 62 65 66 68 37 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 59 60 62 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 53 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT