* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/26/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 66 70 76 79 79 74 61 50 44 40 38 37 37 36 V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 66 70 66 69 69 54 36 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 50 57 63 69 73 68 73 73 56 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 9 10 9 10 11 24 30 39 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 0 -1 -2 2 4 7 13 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 18 6 355 323 316 256 272 259 263 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.7 28.4 28.0 26.8 24.7 23.4 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 167 167 170 164 143 138 125 107 99 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 152 156 157 160 155 134 128 115 99 91 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 8 7 7 4 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 64 62 64 64 64 65 66 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 19 19 19 18 19 18 13 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 69 55 39 41 12 5 -2 -5 36 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 43 34 34 18 4 21 49 106 158 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -3 0 -6 8 30 76 135 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 253 297 283 189 82 51 339 191 -40 -427 -479 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.7 20.3 22.0 24.3 27.4 31.1 34.9 38.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.6 84.2 84.8 85.6 86.4 88.3 89.8 90.0 88.0 84.5 81.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 10 11 13 14 17 22 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 69 82 106 109 70 27 20 5 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -12. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. -0. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 16. 20. 26. 29. 29. 24. 11. -0. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.0 83.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/26/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 13.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.73 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 87.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.59 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.37 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.37 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.70 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.78 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.32 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 4.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.2% 49.2% 36.8% 24.9% 7.7% 26.3% 32.0% 16.2% Logistic: 15.3% 42.8% 28.8% 19.7% 9.4% 34.2% 40.8% 17.1% Bayesian: 16.8% 57.2% 22.8% 12.2% 3.9% 7.2% 3.6% 0.1% Consensus: 17.4% 49.8% 29.5% 18.9% 7.0% 22.6% 25.4% 11.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/26/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/26/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 3( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 56 62 66 70 66 69 69 54 36 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 18HR AGO 50 49 55 59 63 59 62 62 47 29 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 54 50 53 53 38 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 40 43 43 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT