* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/23/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 74 76 77 77 75 71 59 58 56 54 51 49 46 44 43 V (KT) LAND 75 74 74 76 77 77 75 71 59 58 56 54 51 49 46 44 43 V (KT) LGEM 75 74 75 75 76 74 66 59 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 15 18 22 16 4 8 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 5 3 5 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 206 180 172 176 151 179 195 204 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.5 26.4 25.2 24.1 13.0 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 111 111 109 118 109 104 73 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 95 94 93 100 94 94 71 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.1 -54.8 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -55.2 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.4 1.0 1.6 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 52 52 51 54 58 61 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 39 42 44 45 43 41 35 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 113 99 100 98 78 74 68 130 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 39 49 74 83 102 72 112 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 7 4 7 3 4 10 -12 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1294 1211 1119 1021 925 781 664 404 776 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.2 33.1 33.9 34.9 35.8 37.9 40.6 44.3 48.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.5 61.6 61.6 61.5 61.4 59.9 56.0 49.2 42.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 16 26 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -5. -8. -12. -18. -25. -30. -33. -36. -39. -42. -44. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -16. -17. -19. -21. -24. -26. -29. -31. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 32.2 61.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/23/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 458.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/23/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/23/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 6( 15) 6( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 74 74 76 77 77 75 71 59 58 56 54 51 49 46 44 43 18HR AGO 75 74 74 76 77 77 75 71 59 58 56 54 51 49 46 44 43 12HR AGO 75 72 71 73 74 74 72 68 56 55 53 51 48 46 43 41 40 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 66 66 64 60 48 47 45 43 40 38 35 33 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT