* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/22/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 78 78 79 78 77 75 66 62 66 64 61 59 57 55 53 V (KT) LAND 80 78 78 78 79 78 77 75 66 62 66 64 61 59 57 55 53 V (KT) LGEM 80 77 77 77 77 77 72 65 57 56 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 15 17 21 12 8 13 22 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 2 1 4 0 8 9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 201 199 187 174 172 139 226 209 229 182 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.5 26.4 24.1 20.9 15.1 13.8 11.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 111 110 109 119 102 89 77 76 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 95 94 93 92 101 91 83 75 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.1 -54.9 -54.8 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.9 -55.4 -54.9 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.2 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 51 52 52 52 54 57 58 58 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 38 39 41 43 44 42 38 37 43 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 130 114 99 100 99 80 85 98 162 202 292 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 29 26 55 86 81 98 66 118 106 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 6 4 9 1 11 11 -11 80 -97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1370 1297 1224 1139 1053 884 762 556 610 1307 970 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.2 32.9 33.7 34.5 36.3 38.6 41.7 45.7 50.4 55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.3 61.5 61.6 61.6 61.7 61.1 58.7 53.6 45.3 35.1 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 12 20 30 39 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -21. -28. -35. -40. -44. -47. -50. -52. -53. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. 1. 2. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. -1. -3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -14. -18. -14. -16. -19. -21. -23. -25. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 31.5 61.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 488.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 7( 19) 6( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 78 78 78 79 78 77 75 66 62 66 64 61 59 57 55 53 18HR AGO 80 79 79 79 80 79 78 76 67 63 67 65 62 60 58 56 54 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 77 76 75 73 64 60 64 62 59 57 55 53 51 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 71 70 69 67 58 54 58 56 53 51 49 47 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT