* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/20/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 50 55 60 71 79 82 86 91 93 94 95 93 82 65 40 V (KT) LAND 40 44 50 55 60 71 79 82 86 91 93 94 95 93 82 65 40 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 51 55 64 70 73 77 81 82 80 78 72 61 45 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 12 9 12 7 6 14 9 7 15 18 6 28 42 56 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 3 0 -1 -4 -2 1 0 5 0 0 3 8 8 13 SHEAR DIR 220 227 239 218 200 246 11 318 225 196 171 141 238 191 210 234 246 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.4 26.1 26.0 24.9 20.6 19.8 18.2 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 128 130 131 126 121 118 118 119 116 115 116 108 86 84 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 110 110 113 114 109 104 101 99 99 97 98 101 97 80 78 74 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.6 -55.5 -55.2 -55.1 -55.2 -54.7 -55.3 -55.3 -55.2 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.3 -55.7 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 44 44 43 43 45 42 48 46 45 46 44 42 48 44 27 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 29 30 31 34 33 33 33 35 37 40 41 43 41 32 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 157 150 163 160 166 176 175 161 133 118 122 120 99 99 105 112 -60 200 MB DIV 17 40 66 71 57 76 -4 19 28 84 81 67 43 76 72 4 -39 700-850 TADV 1 11 15 23 24 14 -1 5 2 5 1 -1 2 -11 -15 -127 -238 LAND (KM) 1319 1325 1332 1324 1322 1301 1297 1362 1413 1298 1183 1064 913 790 600 760 1175 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.6 25.9 26.4 26.9 27.9 28.7 29.8 30.9 31.8 32.9 34.3 36.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.3 55.5 55.7 56.2 56.8 58.4 59.8 60.8 61.6 62.2 62.4 62.1 60.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 4 5 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 6 10 16 22 26 27 26 HEAT CONTENT 29 22 19 14 12 10 5 2 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):165/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 2. -3. -10. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 12. 16. 16. 16. 12. 1. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 10. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 20. 31. 39. 42. 46. 51. 53. 54. 55. 53. 42. 25. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 25.2 55.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.55 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.25 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.66 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.42 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.39 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.5% 9.4% 6.6% 3.2% 8.1% 11.2% 14.1% Logistic: 1.5% 6.0% 4.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.5% 4.6% 2.5% 1.1% 2.9% 3.9% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 50 55 60 71 79 82 86 91 93 94 95 93 82 65 40 18HR AGO 40 39 45 50 55 66 74 77 81 86 88 89 90 88 77 60 35 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 46 57 65 68 72 77 79 80 81 79 68 51 26 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 46 54 57 61 66 68 69 70 68 57 40 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT