* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/09/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 99 89 79 68 46 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 99 79 58 45 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 98 86 58 44 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 29 35 34 32 39 37 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 5 2 2 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 243 249 260 263 266 272 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 26.9 24.6 23.9 24.7 24.0 24.1 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 124 103 98 103 98 98 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 110 92 87 90 86 85 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.2 -49.8 -50.2 -50.2 -49.6 -49.8 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 4 3 4 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 46 40 36 38 42 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 30 29 27 20 15 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 23 9 -2 48 17 -19 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 48 35 54 42 15 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 19 18 19 13 9 17 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 219 117 -16 -134 -240 -358 -463 -635 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.7 29.9 31.0 32.0 33.6 34.9 36.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.8 93.5 93.1 92.5 91.9 90.3 88.4 86.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -12. -19. -29. -41. -51. -60. -66. -70. -74. -78. -79. -81. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -11. -16. -20. -28. -30. -31. -29. -26. -23. -22. -19. -17. -15. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -12. -21. -32. -35. -37. -39. -40. -40. -39. -38. -36. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -16. -26. -37. -59. -79.-100.-109.-116.-119.-121.-121.-118.-116.-116.-121. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 27.5 93.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/09/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 832.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -5.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/09/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/09/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 0( 27) 0( 27) 0( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 99 79 58 45 32 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 84 63 50 37 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 80 67 54 51 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 82 69 66 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 73 70 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 IN 6HR 105 99 90 84 81 75 72 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT