* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/07/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 87 92 96 94 88 72 58 41 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 83 87 92 96 94 88 48 34 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 82 85 87 89 88 76 43 32 28 27 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 12 12 18 24 38 36 39 43 56 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 8 3 4 8 8 14 1 0 0 -1 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 122 168 179 209 207 243 244 256 262 278 274 282 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.0 28.6 29.0 28.7 27.7 25.4 24.7 24.0 24.4 23.6 22.8 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 153 146 152 147 133 109 104 99 102 96 92 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 155 144 135 138 132 118 97 92 87 88 84 80 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 -51.0 -50.3 -50.1 -49.8 -49.6 -49.7 -50.3 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 3 6 5 5 2 4 0 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 73 72 72 69 59 51 45 48 52 55 53 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 28 31 34 34 35 30 26 19 13 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 39 18 7 18 -4 9 -16 34 -33 2 -26 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 56 41 21 40 39 22 43 64 19 24 24 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 7 4 -1 3 20 19 29 29 35 28 50 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 44 163 282 396 451 295 39 -205 -375 -532 -627 -575 -421 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.6 23.4 24.2 25.0 27.0 29.3 31.8 33.8 35.5 37.1 38.6 40.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.8 90.0 91.2 92.0 92.8 93.2 92.8 91.6 89.7 87.4 84.9 82.3 79.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 11 10 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 29 34 57 55 17 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 427 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -7. -13. -18. -22. -27. -32. -35. -36. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -16. -20. -21. -21. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 7. 1. -5. -15. -25. -34. -37. -36. -35. -33. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 14. 8. -8. -22. -39. -55. -72. -82. -85. -86. -87. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 21.8 88.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/07/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.69 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.31 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.98 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.50 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.68 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.31 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.36 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.7% 30.0% 23.6% 22.6% 7.7% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 23.3% 29.9% 22.1% 25.1% 21.1% 9.1% 2.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.6% 16.9% 11.0% 4.6% 1.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.9% 25.6% 18.9% 17.4% 10.2% 6.7% 0.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/07/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/07/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 10( 16) 19( 32) 16( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 6 6( 12) 9( 20) 0( 20) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 83 87 92 96 94 88 48 34 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 83 88 92 90 84 44 30 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 81 85 83 77 37 23 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 74 72 66 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 83 74 68 65 63 57 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 80 83 87 78 72 68 62 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS