* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/07/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 35 36 40 41 45 48 49 50 52 52 55 56 58 58 V (KT) LAND 35 34 35 35 36 40 41 45 48 49 50 52 52 55 56 58 58 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 32 32 31 31 30 30 31 33 36 38 40 42 43 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 8 9 14 6 8 4 11 13 11 8 6 4 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -1 0 -1 1 -1 1 -4 -5 -6 -5 -5 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 235 228 163 148 159 157 167 144 109 129 156 150 164 154 221 158 216 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 151 151 152 152 153 152 150 150 147 144 143 141 136 136 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 56 54 54 53 56 57 57 58 60 62 61 60 57 54 54 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 10 8 8 7 6 7 7 6 7 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -10 0 -4 1 16 36 34 33 36 34 31 29 27 33 35 43 22 200 MB DIV -4 -2 -5 -2 -11 1 -5 12 43 56 75 47 26 7 16 8 0 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 -2 -5 -4 1 0 1 4 1 9 9 LAND (KM) 604 608 611 618 625 645 663 687 699 737 764 744 757 796 860 951 1025 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.5 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.2 107.2 107.3 107.4 107.8 108.3 109.1 109.8 110.6 111.3 112.1 113.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 4 5 4 5 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 16 14 14 12 11 11 8 4 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 0. 1. 5. 6. 10. 13. 14. 15. 17. 17. 20. 21. 23. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.2 107.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/07/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.82 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.68 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.14 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.66 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.19 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.45 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 20.7% 19.9% 15.8% 11.2% 16.0% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 7.8% 21.6% 13.3% 7.4% 2.5% 2.7% 0.6% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 14.5% 11.1% 7.7% 4.6% 6.3% 5.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/07/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##