* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/07/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 100 103 104 104 100 93 80 70 58 46 36 35 34 34 33 V (KT) LAND 100 87 82 85 86 86 82 75 52 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 100 96 71 82 86 91 90 78 55 36 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 7 9 9 10 6 17 21 31 28 37 33 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 3 4 1 8 6 9 4 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 99 75 111 130 163 203 244 245 254 247 260 263 276 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.8 29.0 28.1 27.2 23.8 24.1 24.0 24.6 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 160 160 156 149 151 138 127 97 99 98 102 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 165 154 152 146 136 135 122 112 86 87 86 88 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.1 -50.3 -49.8 -49.5 -49.2 -49.3 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 5 6 5 5 4 5 2 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 73 71 73 74 73 65 58 47 45 41 37 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 27 28 30 34 35 36 31 27 21 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 73 63 48 27 26 10 30 -1 45 17 37 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 44 59 48 45 48 46 42 39 85 19 12 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 6 6 1 25 18 27 6 2 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 153 -5 8 115 222 416 391 171 -40 -180 -346 -519 -607 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.9 21.6 22.3 23.0 24.4 26.0 28.0 30.1 32.0 33.8 35.3 36.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.7 87.0 88.3 89.5 90.6 92.0 92.6 92.3 91.5 90.3 88.7 86.8 85.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 11 9 9 11 11 11 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 112 48 50 33 29 59 29 9 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -5. -12. -21. -29. -36. -41. -47. -50. -52. -54. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -3. -2. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 3. -3. -12. -23. -27. -26. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. 0. 3. 4. 4. 0. -7. -20. -30. -42. -54. -64. -65. -66. -66. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 20.1 85.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/07/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.33 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.70 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.37 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.93 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.39 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.50 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.62 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.40 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 14.4% 10.2% 7.7% 5.3% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 9.1% 5.6% 7.3% 10.0% 4.7% 2.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 6.0% 16.9% 7.6% 9.8% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.7% 13.5% 7.8% 8.3% 6.9% 4.4% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/07/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/07/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 8( 28) 10( 35) 10( 42) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 49 22( 60) 10( 64) 34( 76) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 87 82 85 86 86 82 75 52 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 100 99 94 97 98 98 94 87 64 47 41 40 39 39 39 39 39 12HR AGO 100 97 96 99 100 100 96 89 66 49 43 42 41 41 41 41 41 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 91 91 87 80 57 40 34 33 32 32 32 32 32 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 81 77 70 47 30 24 23 22 22 22 22 22 IN 6HR 100 87 78 72 69 68 64 57 34 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT