* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/06/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 127 128 129 128 126 127 121 112 98 82 68 56 47 41 40 38 V (KT) LAND 120 127 128 108 95 93 95 89 79 65 39 31 28 28 29 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 120 133 140 121 90 109 110 102 89 73 42 31 28 28 29 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 16 10 6 5 7 6 12 20 30 27 32 36 59 65 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 6 0 1 3 7 7 11 4 -1 0 0 0 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 79 81 81 77 91 185 227 233 252 263 253 266 255 261 276 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.0 29.6 29.7 29.1 29.1 28.6 27.5 24.7 24.4 24.3 24.6 23.6 21.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 171 163 165 153 153 145 130 103 101 101 104 98 88 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 173 173 167 157 155 140 137 128 114 92 89 90 93 87 79 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -50.2 -49.5 -49.3 -49.2 -49.2 -49.8 -51.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 2 2 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 73 73 74 74 76 74 65 58 49 48 43 42 42 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 27 29 29 32 36 36 36 33 29 23 16 12 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 108 103 79 71 37 37 26 49 18 63 36 82 45 29 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 86 71 48 64 49 47 45 29 40 79 24 18 26 16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -2 -3 -2 10 5 17 19 29 8 3 0 17 47 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 309 278 120 -31 6 190 366 448 249 30 -115 -300 -564 -545 -369 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.3 20.1 20.8 21.5 22.7 23.9 25.4 27.3 29.3 31.4 33.4 35.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.5 84.8 86.1 87.4 88.6 90.6 92.0 92.5 92.4 91.7 90.4 88.6 85.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 12 10 8 9 10 11 12 14 17 17 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 106 144 94 46 55 32 54 49 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 5. 1. -8. -18. -27. -38. -47. -54. -60. -67. -73. -74. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -5. -7. -5. -2. -1. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 12. 12. 13. 8. 1. -7. -17. -23. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 8. 1. -8. -22. -38. -52. -64. -73. -79. -80. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 18.5 83.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/06/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -45.0 to 30.0 1.00 18.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.64 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 89.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.61 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.81 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.08 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.66 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.67 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.15 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.47 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 58% is 11.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 57.6% 52.5% 44.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 65.5% 65.8% 59.6% 51.9% 33.1% 39.4% 15.9% 2.9% Bayesian: 16.0% 16.6% 12.0% 6.2% 13.8% 5.3% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 46.4% 45.0% 38.5% 19.4% 15.6% 14.9% 5.3% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/06/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/06/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 43( 62) 17( 68) 14( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 24 13( 34) 14( 43) 5( 46) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 127 128 108 95 93 95 89 79 65 39 31 28 28 29 29 30 18HR AGO 120 119 120 100 87 85 87 81 71 57 31 23 20 20 21 21 22 12HR AGO 120 117 116 96 83 81 83 77 67 53 27 19 16 16 17 17 18 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 97 95 97 91 81 67 41 33 30 30 31 31 32 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 99 101 95 85 71 45 37 34 34 35 35 36 IN 6HR 120 127 118 112 109 107 109 103 93 79 53 45 42 42 43 43 44 IN 12HR 120 127 128 119 113 109 111 105 95 81 55 47 44 44 45 45 46