* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/06/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 35 33 31 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 35 33 31 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 35 32 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 37 43 43 39 38 39 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 10 11 2 3 0 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 229 226 228 234 228 243 250 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 24.5 24.4 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.7 24.9 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 107 105 107 107 106 108 110 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -53.1 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 39 37 37 36 28 26 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 19 19 18 17 15 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 4 -6 -5 -17 -9 -11 -21 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 18 29 12 38 51 0 -26 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 5 2 1 1 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2001 2024 1956 1903 1850 1752 1654 1544 1434 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.2 22.5 22.7 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.2 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.8 135.5 136.2 136.8 137.3 138.3 139.3 140.4 141.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -10. -18. -30. -39. -47. -50. -52. -54. -57. -63. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -7. -13. -19. -19. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -15. -24. -37. -50. -59. -65. -71. -75. -82. -87. -95.-102. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.9 134.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/06/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 411.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.96 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/06/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##