* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/06/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 89 95 100 106 114 118 118 118 107 94 77 60 46 39 38 36 V (KT) LAND 80 89 95 100 106 111 115 115 115 104 77 46 33 29 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 80 91 101 109 116 119 118 113 105 90 64 40 31 28 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 12 14 10 6 9 7 11 18 32 25 30 41 52 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 2 2 0 1 6 6 9 2 -2 1 0 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 65 87 89 111 117 174 214 237 252 263 262 264 260 259 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.5 29.1 29.0 28.1 27.0 23.9 24.3 24.9 23.8 23.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 173 173 173 171 161 153 150 137 124 98 101 106 98 94 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 172 173 173 173 166 151 138 133 120 109 88 90 93 86 83 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -50.5 -49.5 -49.7 -49.5 -49.1 -49.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.8 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 6 7 6 7 6 6 4 5 2 5 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 71 72 73 73 75 72 64 58 50 51 47 45 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 23 25 28 30 32 36 35 33 27 20 14 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 81 82 86 84 61 26 22 11 38 8 31 9 20 12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 41 36 63 59 70 36 40 30 30 44 47 35 34 46 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 -2 1 0 11 3 16 22 38 28 13 28 31 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 277 346 353 239 132 56 235 393 363 173 -20 -182 -420 -535 -528 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 18.0 18.8 19.7 20.5 22.1 23.3 24.5 25.9 27.6 29.7 32.2 34.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.7 81.9 83.1 84.4 85.7 88.1 89.9 91.0 91.3 91.1 90.3 88.9 86.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 14 12 9 7 8 10 12 14 14 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 122 102 109 134 99 42 32 48 34 7 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -11. -16. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 16. 12. 4. -7. -15. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 16. 11. 6. 1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 15. 20. 26. 34. 38. 38. 38. 27. 14. -2. -20. -34. -41. -42. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.2 80.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/06/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.93 20.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.66 6.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 113.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.77 7.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.76 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 5.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.50 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.74 4.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.63 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.39 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 56% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 73% is 6.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 13.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 51% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 55.7% 72.7% 57.2% 52.0% 22.9% 50.8% 35.8% 27.1% Logistic: 40.6% 66.2% 51.3% 45.9% 43.5% 59.0% 52.6% 39.4% Bayesian: 31.7% 90.5% 61.1% 42.2% 32.0% 56.6% 10.2% 5.1% Consensus: 42.7% 76.5% 56.6% 46.7% 32.8% 55.5% 32.9% 23.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/06/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/06/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 17( 23) 27( 44) 29( 60) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 12( 14) 11( 23) 72( 79) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 89 95 100 106 111 115 115 115 104 77 46 33 29 28 28 28 18HR AGO 80 79 85 90 96 101 105 105 105 94 67 36 23 19 18 18 18 12HR AGO 80 77 76 81 87 92 96 96 96 85 58 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 76 81 85 85 85 74 47 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 89 80 74 71 71 75 75 75 64 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 80 89 95 86 80 76 80 80 80 69 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS