* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/05/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 65 73 81 88 97 107 110 111 105 96 78 63 50 38 38 37 V (KT) LAND 55 65 73 81 88 97 107 110 111 105 96 53 35 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 66 76 85 95 111 119 120 110 96 79 46 33 28 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 2 0 2 4 7 7 11 10 12 24 35 33 35 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 5 2 3 1 1 1 2 11 5 4 2 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 3 99 188 359 73 142 162 179 204 239 240 261 261 270 276 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.4 29.9 29.3 29.0 28.1 27.2 24.9 24.2 25.2 24.3 23.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 170 172 173 173 170 158 152 137 126 105 100 108 102 98 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 158 165 169 173 173 165 148 136 119 109 93 89 95 90 87 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -50.5 -50.2 -50.3 -50.2 -50.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.8 1.1 1.6 1.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 6 6 5 6 4 4 2 3 1 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 77 77 74 73 76 73 74 65 57 58 56 56 57 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 18 19 20 24 27 30 32 32 28 23 20 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 94 84 80 83 76 58 53 55 44 31 -10 -20 -22 3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 50 41 38 59 71 50 54 41 22 36 57 85 50 21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 0 -4 4 5 12 7 26 35 65 46 27 13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 239 242 289 360 307 114 167 387 337 184 1 -110 -286 -349 -286 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.8 17.4 18.3 19.2 21.2 23.1 24.7 26.1 27.5 29.3 31.4 33.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.2 80.1 80.9 82.0 83.2 85.7 88.1 90.0 90.9 91.1 90.5 89.0 86.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 14 15 15 13 10 7 8 11 12 13 15 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 115 118 120 105 116 82 36 45 26 9 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 72.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 11. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 6. 2. -2. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 6. 6. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 9. 13. 15. 15. 9. 2. -4. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 17. 25. 23. 17. 9. 2. -5. -10. -14. -17. -17. -19. -19. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 18. 26. 33. 42. 52. 55. 56. 50. 41. 23. 8. -5. -17. -17. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.2 79.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/05/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.93 23.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.96 11.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 114.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.78 9.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.70 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 6.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.55 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.86 5.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.84 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.39 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 58% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 93% is 8.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 71% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 16.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 14.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 99% is 21.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 80% is 16.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 86% is 16.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 57.6% 92.6% 71.0% 66.1% 34.6% 99.2% 79.5% 85.9% Logistic: 50.7% 86.6% 79.1% 58.9% 47.3% 68.2% 73.1% 75.7% Bayesian: 31.0% 92.3% 68.5% 46.4% 39.4% 76.7% 12.3% 21.2% Consensus: 46.4% 90.5% 72.9% 57.1% 40.4% 81.4% 55.0% 60.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/05/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/05/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 11( 15) 20( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 3( 4) 13( 16) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 65 73 81 88 97 107 110 111 105 96 53 35 29 28 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 62 70 77 86 96 99 100 94 85 42 24 18 17 16 16 12HR AGO 55 52 51 59 66 75 85 88 89 83 74 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 52 61 71 74 75 69 60 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT