* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/05/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 47 39 32 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 47 39 32 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 48 42 37 32 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 30 31 31 37 38 45 37 41 38 37 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 4 1 1 8 5 3 1 -1 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 254 255 252 248 242 235 240 240 247 260 269 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.2 23.7 23.9 24.2 23.9 24.3 24.4 24.3 24.4 24.7 25.1 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 104 98 101 104 100 104 104 103 104 107 112 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 41 41 40 40 39 36 33 29 27 24 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 27 26 25 24 20 18 16 14 12 9 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 21 22 16 13 -5 -21 -32 -12 -25 -9 -10 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 0 -11 -19 -24 28 7 5 9 -21 -36 -52 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 8 5 3 4 4 0 0 -2 0 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1781 1826 1873 1897 1920 1966 1961 1867 1791 1711 1621 1519 1417 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.5 22.9 23.3 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.4 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.7 131.4 132.1 132.8 133.6 135.0 136.2 137.2 138.0 138.8 139.7 140.7 141.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -13. -20. -28. -35. -41. -43. -43. -45. -48. -52. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. -29. -26. -24. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -23. -28. -36. -44. -54. -63. -73. -82. -89. -92. -95. -98.-102.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.6 130.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/05/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 535.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.03 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/05/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##