* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/04/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 53 53 51 53 54 54 54 52 54 55 59 59 62 60 V (KT) LAND 50 43 47 47 47 46 47 49 48 48 46 49 50 54 53 56 54 V (KT) LGEM 50 42 44 44 42 39 36 35 35 36 36 37 39 42 46 50 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 20 21 27 34 25 16 18 18 17 17 12 13 8 12 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 3 -1 -8 -4 -7 -4 -3 -5 -3 -1 -5 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 175 173 171 167 169 175 143 130 135 158 150 155 144 144 159 182 152 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 165 166 166 166 169 167 161 157 154 155 152 152 152 152 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 147 144 144 143 145 153 149 142 138 134 136 133 132 133 132 135 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 4 7 3 7 3 8 5 9 6 10 700-500 MB RH 59 54 50 47 45 43 47 48 55 61 69 72 75 76 75 74 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 22 22 22 19 18 16 12 12 10 10 8 9 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 76 78 62 63 48 11 15 24 42 49 62 62 73 75 69 56 53 200 MB DIV 104 87 71 65 46 19 2 34 46 24 23 29 24 44 60 53 39 700-850 TADV 15 13 5 5 4 6 7 5 4 4 3 3 8 2 4 1 2 LAND (KM) -65 -19 30 54 78 92 85 100 140 169 178 183 193 198 205 201 189 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.4 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.2 21.9 21.5 20.9 20.4 20.2 20.2 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.9 88.1 88.3 88.4 88.5 89.0 89.9 91.1 91.7 92.1 92.4 92.9 93.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 2 2 3 5 5 3 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 48 47 53 50 45 43 43 44 42 35 34 34 32 32 31 31 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -6. -10. -15. -17. -21. -22. -25. -23. -24. -23. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 4. 5. 9. 9. 12. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.0 87.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/04/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.03 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.33 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.83 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.50 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 318.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.56 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.52 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 16.2% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 5.6% 6.4% 3.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 7.6% 5.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/04/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/04/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 43 47 47 47 46 47 49 48 48 46 49 50 54 53 56 54 18HR AGO 50 49 53 53 53 52 53 55 54 54 52 55 56 60 59 62 60 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 46 45 46 48 47 47 45 48 49 53 52 55 53 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 39 40 42 41 41 39 42 43 47 46 49 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT