* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/03/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 103 92 82 73 56 44 33 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 103 92 82 73 56 44 33 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 102 93 83 74 60 48 38 30 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 17 22 25 24 30 32 37 42 46 39 40 44 32 16 40 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 0 2 0 0 -3 -1 4 6 0 SHEAR DIR 248 243 246 256 254 248 253 258 248 245 246 240 241 249 336 356 307 SST (C) 26.2 26.0 25.6 25.1 25.0 25.1 24.2 24.4 24.3 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.0 23.9 23.8 23.9 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 118 113 111 113 103 105 104 100 100 102 101 101 101 102 96 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -52.2 -53.4 -53.5 -54.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 3 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 58 54 51 50 48 43 40 38 39 35 29 27 33 30 36 37 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 32 33 33 30 29 26 22 19 20 16 13 11 10 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 64 57 54 47 59 49 34 31 7 -4 -1 0 12 25 -12 17 -20 200 MB DIV 42 46 22 13 19 2 -10 -1 8 8 -1 3 12 -26 -33 -19 -47 700-850 TADV 0 6 4 1 10 11 5 8 3 4 0 0 0 -7 -11 -20 -49 LAND (KM) 1589 1597 1608 1629 1653 1727 1808 1831 1855 1880 1894 1895 1843 1673 1545 1384 1236 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.5 21.1 21.8 22.4 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.5 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.1 127.6 128.1 128.7 129.2 130.4 131.7 132.9 134.0 134.9 135.6 136.1 136.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 5 7 9 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -22. -32. -41. -49. -56. -62. -67. -70. -73. -76. -80. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -13. -17. -19. -19. -20. -22. -25. -29. -35. -40. -40. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -18. -21. -21. -24. -26. -26. -24. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -18. -28. -37. -54. -66. -77. -89. -99.-104.-116.-125.-133.-136.-146.-153. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.8 127.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/03/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 823.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/03/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##