* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/03/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 106 100 90 73 61 48 38 26 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 112 106 100 90 73 61 48 38 26 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 110 103 94 86 71 59 48 38 30 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 11 14 21 21 29 30 36 35 42 42 44 41 34 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 2 2 3 2 6 2 3 4 0 -3 -3 4 6 11 SHEAR DIR 242 256 257 248 250 263 251 263 255 244 246 245 243 238 224 278 308 SST (C) 27.5 26.8 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.2 25.3 24.4 24.5 24.5 24.2 24.2 24.1 23.8 23.8 22.8 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 131 124 123 121 113 115 105 106 105 102 103 103 102 103 94 78 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -53.4 -54.6 -53.5 -51.9 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.7 3.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 59 57 55 51 48 46 41 38 38 36 34 31 30 38 42 47 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 35 36 34 33 31 29 27 22 19 16 13 10 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 87 78 76 72 62 65 51 35 30 10 0 -15 -21 -12 58 71 128 200 MB DIV 65 49 34 42 23 18 10 -8 -10 9 2 -10 4 25 60 53 40 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 0 5 9 5 2 5 3 1 1 2 4 -23 -47 -32 LAND (KM) 1606 1611 1620 1631 1645 1694 1776 1869 1911 1942 1949 1931 1852 1720 1440 1130 845 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.8 23.6 25.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.1 126.7 127.3 127.8 128.3 129.4 130.7 132.0 133.2 134.3 135.1 135.7 136.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 6 9 13 18 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -21. -31. -41. -50. -57. -64. -69. -72. -74. -78. -82. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -16. -21. -26. -32. -35. -33. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -18. -22. -25. -26. -27. -25. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -15. -25. -42. -54. -67. -77. -89.-100.-111.-119.-127.-134.-135.-138. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.6 126.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/03/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 795.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/03/20 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##