* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/02/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 121 122 123 120 105 89 75 63 52 39 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 121 122 123 120 105 89 75 63 52 39 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 120 121 119 113 96 81 67 53 43 33 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 11 7 1 10 23 26 30 37 40 44 54 47 39 40 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -7 -6 2 3 0 3 4 6 7 0 1 -3 -3 -4 12 SHEAR DIR 88 75 77 78 141 260 259 271 257 254 241 240 237 241 231 226 290 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.2 26.4 25.4 25.4 24.5 24.6 24.3 24.5 24.6 24.3 24.5 24.6 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 145 136 127 116 116 107 107 104 106 107 104 106 107 108 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -50.9 -52.0 -53.3 -53.1 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 68 66 62 59 55 50 43 39 40 42 39 36 37 34 35 35 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 34 37 38 36 35 34 32 30 27 22 19 16 15 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 105 101 107 107 99 88 79 72 57 38 32 -3 4 -8 23 44 49 200 MB DIV 72 51 74 76 50 -3 20 10 17 -4 2 16 0 -11 3 5 -6 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -4 -1 0 0 5 11 6 8 3 1 -2 -3 -6 -13 -29 LAND (KM) 1467 1517 1576 1597 1619 1663 1713 1796 1893 1935 1967 1985 1919 1860 1825 1826 1840 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.9 19.8 20.5 21.1 21.8 22.4 23.1 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.7 123.8 124.9 125.7 126.6 128.1 129.4 130.8 132.2 133.7 134.9 135.9 136.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 10 9 9 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 12 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -13. -23. -33. -43. -50. -57. -62. -65. -68. -71. -75. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. -14. -20. -27. -31. -31. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -9. -14. -16. -18. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 7. 8. 5. -10. -26. -40. -52. -63. -76. -91.-103.-114.-121.-128.-131. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 15.9 122.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/02/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.01 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.75 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.57 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.54 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 579.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.20 -1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.91 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.56 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.3% 26.4% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 24.9% 20.8% 17.8% 17.6% 21.5% 4.4% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 8.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.2% 15.7% 12.3% 5.9% 7.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/02/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##