* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/01/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 89 97 106 110 117 116 107 94 82 67 52 40 27 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 89 97 106 110 117 116 107 94 82 67 52 40 27 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 89 97 102 106 109 108 100 89 75 62 50 40 31 25 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 9 10 5 2 10 20 25 30 37 44 47 47 48 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 2 -1 -6 -1 -2 0 0 1 2 7 3 3 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 94 58 50 70 84 65 232 284 281 275 250 245 228 228 228 229 229 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.4 26.7 25.7 25.6 24.7 24.7 24.5 24.3 23.8 23.7 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 147 148 146 138 130 119 118 109 109 107 105 99 99 99 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -50.7 -50.6 -50.8 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.4 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 70 70 69 70 64 54 47 39 40 41 43 45 42 37 37 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 32 35 35 38 38 38 38 37 34 31 30 26 25 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 97 88 93 102 109 104 99 103 92 81 72 51 50 27 37 49 72 200 MB DIV 94 80 98 97 63 40 34 14 -3 23 15 -1 5 -3 1 -12 -8 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -12 -9 -4 -4 2 1 8 3 10 13 8 6 -2 -9 -11 LAND (KM) 1207 1283 1351 1404 1467 1580 1642 1709 1784 1852 1917 1908 1873 1804 1716 1555 1458 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.7 17.7 18.7 19.5 20.3 21.2 22.2 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.7 120.1 121.3 122.6 124.8 126.7 128.5 130.0 131.3 132.6 133.8 134.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 17 21 16 15 11 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 57.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -17. -19. -22. -25. -28. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 4. 2. 0. -4. -9. -15. -21. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 12. 8. 3. 1. -3. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 15. 9. 2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 17. 26. 30. 37. 36. 27. 14. 2. -13. -28. -40. -53. -63. -73. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.6 117.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/01/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.35 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 9.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.48 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.67 7.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.57 -6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 6.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.92 7.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.14 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.66 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 51.8% 49.9% 41.2% 32.1% 23.5% 22.7% 16.2% 0.0% Logistic: 42.5% 52.2% 33.8% 32.6% 17.5% 21.1% 8.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 53.2% 28.3% 23.6% 19.7% 5.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 49.2% 43.5% 32.9% 28.1% 15.4% 15.4% 8.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/01/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##