* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 09/29/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 54 65 81 93 102 103 102 97 89 75 66 57 49 41 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 54 65 81 93 102 103 102 97 89 75 66 57 49 41 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 48 54 69 84 96 99 96 85 70 55 44 38 33 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 8 8 10 7 2 5 9 12 23 24 27 29 36 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 3 1 0 4 2 -1 0 4 6 3 2 1 4 -4 SHEAR DIR 53 41 49 64 83 76 54 86 223 220 219 226 246 249 249 240 232 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.1 26.0 25.0 24.9 24.1 24.0 23.8 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 156 154 151 150 148 147 135 123 112 110 102 101 99 99 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 75 76 75 73 72 71 70 73 70 64 61 54 53 49 49 46 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 17 19 23 27 30 34 35 37 38 37 33 31 29 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 53 60 67 71 81 92 78 89 76 63 38 37 22 31 27 30 8 200 MB DIV 102 99 105 117 119 95 64 78 61 86 33 35 -8 11 -6 17 23 700-850 TADV -8 -10 -7 -5 -4 -5 -6 -4 -2 2 4 22 15 14 7 18 9 LAND (KM) 758 821 901 1000 1033 1178 1332 1429 1520 1558 1596 1661 1736 1808 1822 1787 1765 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.1 16.0 17.1 18.3 19.5 20.5 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.8 110.1 111.4 112.8 114.2 117.1 119.8 122.3 124.4 126.2 127.8 129.3 130.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 6 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 15 15 17 27 14 18 13 14 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 24. 23. 22. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -9. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 26. 31. 34. 34. 32. 24. 19. 15. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 19. 30. 46. 58. 67. 68. 67. 62. 54. 40. 31. 22. 14. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.6 108.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 09/29/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.88 8.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.45 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.79 6.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.80 -5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.34 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.87 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 57% is 12.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 25.4% 24.3% 20.1% 0.0% 24.1% 37.2% 57.2% Logistic: 2.4% 15.5% 8.8% 5.1% 0.9% 9.0% 8.6% 10.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 5.6% 4.5% 1.0% 0.1% 1.2% 1.6% 4.5% Consensus: 5.2% 15.5% 12.6% 8.7% 0.3% 11.4% 15.8% 23.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 09/29/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##