* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP172020 09/22/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 46 45 45 48 49 47 45 42 40 37 36 32 30 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 46 45 45 48 49 47 45 42 40 37 36 32 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 46 46 43 41 40 38 35 33 30 27 24 21 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 9 6 7 7 6 4 5 8 15 13 12 11 13 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 5 2 8 4 7 6 7 4 SHEAR DIR 22 27 33 19 350 1 313 304 271 213 254 263 275 266 268 249 272 SST (C) 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.6 25.8 26.2 26.1 26.4 25.9 25.1 25.4 24.9 25.1 24.7 24.6 24.9 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 136 134 129 121 125 124 127 122 113 117 112 114 110 108 111 116 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 62 61 59 54 48 44 40 37 33 33 34 35 33 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 24 24 22 22 20 19 17 16 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 39 41 30 27 23 29 38 50 44 52 41 50 63 61 50 34 22 200 MB DIV 25 26 22 22 13 13 -6 -10 0 -7 -17 -8 -15 -16 -4 -21 -30 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -3 1 2 4 6 6 3 4 0 3 1 0 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 822 856 895 941 996 1121 1215 1336 1459 1618 1786 1971 2090 1871 1673 1518 1365 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.2 20.2 20.3 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.1 117.2 118.2 119.2 120.1 121.9 123.5 125.2 126.8 128.6 130.5 132.6 134.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 442 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 3. 4. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -9. -13. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.2 116.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172020 LOWELL 09/22/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.54 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.49 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.29 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.65 -4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.42 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.0 to -2.0 1.00 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 19.3% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 7.0% 6.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 LOWELL 09/22/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##