* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP172020 09/21/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 45 46 47 52 58 61 61 62 57 52 49 47 45 43 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 45 46 47 52 58 61 61 62 57 52 49 47 45 43 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 48 50 51 51 51 51 50 48 45 40 36 31 27 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 11 8 9 2 5 3 4 8 12 14 17 18 17 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 0 0 2 6 8 7 7 7 5 SHEAR DIR 31 31 32 27 49 101 354 357 305 279 273 268 278 263 273 259 240 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.2 26.5 26.2 26.2 26.1 25.9 24.7 25.1 24.2 24.6 24.5 24.5 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 143 139 136 128 125 125 123 122 109 114 104 109 108 108 114 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 65 62 59 53 49 45 43 41 38 37 35 33 31 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 21 20 20 20 23 26 27 28 29 28 27 27 25 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 37 50 50 47 44 40 32 49 47 57 56 58 81 84 87 94 86 200 MB DIV 50 60 30 9 -2 32 10 6 -10 13 -3 -27 -28 -19 -16 -11 -8 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -12 -7 -2 3 4 5 8 11 5 7 7 9 7 7 8 LAND (KM) 692 703 737 784 808 909 1038 1148 1259 1380 1533 1709 1891 2053 1965 1735 1496 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.8 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.6 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.9 114.0 115.1 116.2 117.3 119.3 121.1 122.9 124.5 126.1 127.9 129.9 131.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 9 9 8 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 7 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 455 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 12. 10. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 2. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 12. 14. 12. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 5. 6. 7. 12. 18. 21. 21. 22. 17. 12. 9. 7. 5. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.3 112.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172020 LOWELL 09/21/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.69 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.46 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.34 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 -4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.10 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.99 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 21.7% 17.8% 14.1% 0.0% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 8.0% 6.3% 4.9% 0.0% 6.1% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 LOWELL 09/21/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##