* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BETA AL222020 09/21/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 36 35 34 34 31 27 23 19 20 19 18 17 16 17 V (KT) LAND 40 39 33 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 32 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 22 25 19 17 18 29 40 45 40 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -2 0 1 -2 0 -4 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 238 265 273 264 261 240 240 235 256 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.8 29.1 29.2 27.8 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 148 144 144 145 149 147 152 155 133 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 123 119 117 120 124 124 129 131 112 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -50.6 -51.0 -51.4 -52.5 -53.3 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 3 3 4 2 4 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 52 52 50 46 45 42 42 41 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 14 13 12 10 11 9 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 0 -9 -9 10 2 21 -10 -2 -7 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 11 1 16 16 2 14 6 8 -10 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 5 7 -1 -4 3 -3 3 0 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 52 15 -21 -26 -30 -31 -17 -68 -196 -281 -400 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.5 30.4 31.6 32.9 34.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.3 96.6 96.6 96.5 95.8 94.7 93.3 91.9 90.5 89.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 1 3 4 6 8 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 33 34 36 35 43 25 4 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -4. -11. -17. -21. -23. -26. -30. -32. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. -23. -24. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -20. -21. -22. -23. -24. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 28.1 96.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 BETA 09/21/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.25 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.59 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.72 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 12.2% 8.2% 6.4% 3.3% 7.2% 6.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 8.9% 7.8% 5.6% 1.2% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 7.0% 5.3% 4.0% 1.5% 3.2% 2.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 BETA 09/21/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 BETA 09/21/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 33 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 33 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT