* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN EP172020 09/21/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 38 41 47 54 61 64 67 64 61 58 54 53 50 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 38 41 47 54 61 64 67 64 61 58 54 53 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 35 36 38 39 39 39 38 37 35 32 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 10 10 7 6 3 3 4 4 8 8 14 12 17 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 2 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 0 4 4 8 2 4 7 SHEAR DIR 25 34 40 43 46 49 325 345 304 299 271 250 276 270 279 283 290 SST (C) 28.9 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.0 25.0 25.3 24.9 25.0 25.2 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 148 147 144 139 135 126 126 124 126 123 113 116 112 113 115 112 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 66 67 65 66 64 58 54 51 48 43 39 35 33 34 33 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 18 19 20 20 22 23 24 27 28 30 29 29 29 27 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 25 39 48 49 43 34 25 38 41 52 52 56 79 99 101 101 97 200 MB DIV 40 50 66 36 18 16 24 18 -10 14 -12 -6 -9 -4 -24 -16 -24 700-850 TADV -12 -9 -9 -12 -7 -1 3 3 5 10 5 4 4 9 3 8 1 LAND (KM) 704 682 685 719 770 832 944 1077 1178 1297 1426 1578 1750 1941 2128 1955 1746 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.4 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.6 113.7 114.8 115.9 117.9 119.8 121.5 123.2 124.8 126.4 128.2 130.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 10 8 6 5 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 23. 23. 23. 21. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 19. 16. 15. 11. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 17. 24. 31. 34. 37. 34. 31. 28. 24. 23. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.7 111.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172020 SEVENTEEN 09/21/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.83 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.44 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.41 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 -5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.38 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.88 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 18.7% 18.0% 14.5% 0.0% 15.0% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 6.5% 6.1% 4.9% 0.0% 5.1% 5.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 SEVENTEEN 09/21/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##