* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/21/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 84 84 83 76 61 42 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 84 84 84 83 76 61 41 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 85 86 87 86 74 51 35 30 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 17 32 45 54 47 42 45 40 38 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 9 9 5 -5 2 0 0 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 312 248 222 226 203 169 177 181 181 186 202 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 26.6 27.3 26.3 27.7 24.9 19.3 16.5 10.8 9.3 5.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 121 130 120 135 106 80 75 70 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 108 115 106 118 92 73 71 69 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.3 -49.5 -49.3 -49.1 -48.4 -49.2 -50.2 -51.2 -50.5 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.3 2.3 2.5 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.1 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 57 53 52 50 55 63 63 60 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 40 44 48 52 51 44 35 30 25 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 162 189 215 213 224 214 228 197 204 226 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 70 76 83 139 78 95 64 81 109 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 17 28 91 89 -4 -20 -12 -70 -198 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1272 1261 1178 1005 835 469 211 -25 -3 424 1002 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.7 31.2 32.6 34.4 36.2 39.5 42.6 46.3 50.5 54.8 59.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.4 63.3 63.1 63.1 63.2 63.7 63.1 60.9 56.3 50.0 43.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 15 16 18 18 16 18 23 28 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 2 13 1 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -13. -22. -31. -39. -46. -49. -53. -56. -58. -59. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -8. -13. -21. -25. -28. -30. -29. -27. -29. -31. -33. -35. -37. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 10. 10. 5. -5. -13. -21. -27. -28. -28. -27. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 17. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -9. -24. -43. -60. -75. -83. -87. -92. -97.-101.-104.-110. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 29.7 63.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 377.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 9( 18) 9( 25) 5( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 84 84 84 83 76 61 41 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 84 84 83 76 61 41 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 81 80 73 58 38 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 67 52 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 59 44 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 84 75 69 66 60 45 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 84 84 75 69 65 50 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS