* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILFRED AL232020 09/21/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 30 29 29 29 30 33 36 39 41 41 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 30 29 29 29 30 33 36 39 41 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 28 27 25 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 27 27 24 23 25 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 289 292 300 307 308 293 305 317 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 133 131 132 132 135 136 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 128 124 123 122 124 125 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 53 51 51 52 53 54 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 47 40 31 25 18 -2 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 5 14 35 36 28 4 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -4 -3 -4 -3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1358 1317 1278 1255 1238 1206 1162 1121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.5 17.1 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.7 47.9 49.0 49.8 50.5 51.5 52.4 53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 9 7 6 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 32 24 21 21 27 44 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 952 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -6. -4. -3. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 46.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL232020 WILFRED 09/21/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.05 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.45 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.72 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.68 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 8.9% 6.3% 4.7% 1.6% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 3.7% 1.9% 2.1% 0.8% 2.3% 2.1% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.3% 2.8% 2.3% 0.8% 2.5% 0.7% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL232020 WILFRED 09/21/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL232020 WILFRED 09/21/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 30 29 29 29 30 33 36 39 41 41 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 28 28 28 29 28 28 28 29 32 35 38 40 40 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 26 26 27 26 26 26 27 30 33 36 38 38 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 20 21 20 20 20 21 24 27 30 32 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT