* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/21/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 90 90 88 85 74 58 37 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 90 90 90 88 85 74 58 38 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 90 91 92 92 86 64 45 36 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 17 34 47 44 40 41 47 44 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 6 8 7 5 -4 3 -4 1 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 326 299 242 222 226 179 174 177 181 177 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.6 26.7 27.3 26.2 27.8 23.8 17.2 13.1 7.8 8.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 132 122 130 118 136 98 75 71 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 115 108 115 104 116 85 70 69 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.5 -50.3 -49.5 -49.3 -48.9 -48.6 -49.5 -50.4 -50.7 -48.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.3 1.7 1.1 1.6 2.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 56 56 53 52 52 60 64 56 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 39 40 45 50 54 48 42 34 30 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 146 163 186 219 220 222 229 241 204 242 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 55 75 83 90 114 78 78 69 73 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 10 22 35 107 46 -16 -9 -37 -105 -90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1190 1294 1246 1143 988 628 317 87 -22 138 591 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.0 30.1 31.2 32.9 34.5 38.0 40.9 44.0 47.8 52.0 56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.7 63.6 63.4 63.3 63.3 63.8 63.9 62.5 58.8 53.6 48.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 14 16 17 16 15 19 25 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 10 2 21 0 45 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 757 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -23. -33. -42. -49. -53. -56. -60. -62. -63. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -5. -10. -18. -22. -24. -26. -26. -25. -26. -28. -29. -30. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -15. -18. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 8. 12. 9. 2. -9. -16. -24. -25. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 16. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -16. -32. -53. -68. -82. -87. -91. -95. -99.-102.-107. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 29.0 63.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.11 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 442.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 11( 31) 10( 38) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 90 90 90 88 85 74 58 38 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 89 89 87 84 73 57 37 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 86 84 81 70 54 34 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 75 64 48 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 68 57 41 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 90 81 75 72 70 59 43 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 90 90 81 75 71 60 44 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS