* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/20/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 89 88 88 86 80 63 42 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 88 89 88 88 86 80 63 45 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 88 87 88 89 90 75 50 38 33 28 26 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 12 18 32 49 45 40 43 44 44 42 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 5 8 10 8 -6 -2 2 4 6 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 336 303 286 236 216 201 174 180 183 188 192 201 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.7 27.3 27.8 23.9 17.9 15.0 10.2 9.5 8.0 8.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 129 122 130 137 99 76 73 69 69 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 115 113 108 115 119 87 70 69 68 68 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.2 -50.4 -50.1 -49.5 -49.3 -48.5 -49.2 -50.1 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 57 56 57 56 53 56 59 61 59 52 61 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 39 41 42 46 53 53 45 37 31 23 16 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 109 143 163 189 214 207 203 209 190 177 175 223 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 53 53 73 75 150 88 96 84 80 96 93 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 10 16 25 83 -2 -20 -44 -111 -205 -74 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1156 1241 1300 1248 1149 785 406 171 41 36 430 993 1286 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.4 30.2 31.6 33.0 36.7 40.2 43.1 46.7 50.8 54.8 58.6 62.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.3 63.3 63.4 63.1 62.9 63.0 63.4 62.8 60.0 55.5 49.9 43.2 36.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 11 14 16 18 16 17 23 26 26 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 14 10 3 17 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -22. -31. -40. -48. -54. -59. -63. -64. -66. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -2. -5. -13. -18. -20. -22. -23. -23. -25. -28. -30. -32. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 13. 5. -6. -15. -28. -37. -33. -32. -31. -30. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 15. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -10. -27. -48. -66. -85. -98. -99.-105.-108.-110.-113. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 28.6 63.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 505.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 11( 30) 10( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 88 89 88 88 86 80 63 45 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 90 89 89 87 81 64 46 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 85 85 83 77 60 42 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 80 78 72 55 37 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 69 63 46 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 88 79 73 70 70 64 47 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 88 89 80 74 70 64 47 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS