* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/20/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 85 83 84 81 83 69 52 33 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 86 85 83 84 81 83 69 52 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 86 84 84 85 88 82 58 39 29 29 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 10 17 45 45 43 42 44 38 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 2 6 9 11 10 -5 7 1 4 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 329 307 287 234 209 182 176 179 183 193 222 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.8 26.9 26.8 26.4 27.1 20.9 16.3 12.7 7.7 9.2 8.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 134 123 124 121 128 85 74 70 68 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 118 115 107 109 107 110 76 70 68 67 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.3 -50.5 -50.6 -50.4 -49.3 -49.0 -48.6 -49.8 -50.1 -51.5 -52.8 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 53 57 58 60 55 53 58 61 63 60 61 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 39 37 40 39 42 47 55 48 41 32 26 19 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 110 143 168 189 197 189 187 197 199 183 165 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 48 47 54 74 80 145 88 95 74 73 99 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 0 10 13 76 46 -14 -37 -76 -61 10 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1111 1182 1255 1303 1257 953 549 255 31 -87 303 778 1286 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.8 29.5 30.6 31.7 35.2 38.9 42.1 45.4 48.9 52.6 56.4 60.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.6 62.9 63.2 63.1 63.0 62.7 63.1 63.0 60.5 56.5 51.3 45.1 39.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 11 15 18 17 17 21 23 25 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 15 13 5 3 4 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -20. -30. -39. -46. -52. -58. -61. -63. -64. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -9. -15. -17. -19. -20. -20. -22. -23. -25. -26. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 2. 6. 15. 9. -0. -14. -23. -34. -40. -38. -37. -36. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -7. -6. -9. -7. -21. -38. -57. -71. -84. -96.-102.-108.-110.-113. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 28.0 62.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.40 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 541.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 9( 28) 8( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 86 85 83 84 81 83 69 52 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 88 86 87 84 86 72 55 36 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 85 82 84 70 53 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 81 78 80 66 49 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 68 70 56 39 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 86 77 71 68 64 66 52 35 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 86 85 76 70 66 68 54 37 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS