* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BETA AL222020 09/20/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 50 50 50 49 47 45 45 42 41 36 34 30 30 30 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 50 50 50 49 36 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 49 48 47 44 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 16 14 17 19 16 21 17 17 29 40 46 34 25 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 1 1 -2 0 -2 0 1 -1 1 -3 1 -1 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 247 240 244 263 246 254 260 260 236 235 223 235 237 245 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.4 29.1 29.3 29.9 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.6 29.5 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 160 163 164 156 150 153 165 160 166 165 159 157 144 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 135 139 139 130 123 126 136 133 137 136 130 127 116 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.6 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 3 3 1 1 1 2 2 5 3 6 3 7 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 51 51 51 57 54 50 44 44 44 42 36 32 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 19 18 17 16 13 11 10 10 10 9 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 5 21 14 3 13 -9 6 -11 32 -14 3 -42 -38 -91 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 17 31 29 23 40 22 20 24 19 12 1 -14 0 13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 1 8 11 11 11 10 0 5 0 11 0 3 3 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 294 285 263 215 166 76 6 -36 -52 -44 -82 -150 -218 -265 -337 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.6 28.1 28.6 29.0 29.5 29.9 30.5 31.1 31.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.5 93.0 93.5 94.0 94.5 95.4 96.0 96.0 95.4 94.5 93.5 92.5 91.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 4 2 3 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 37 46 60 66 41 41 43 25 10 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -19. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -16. -18. -19. -20. -22. -24. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -8. -9. -14. -16. -20. -20. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.9 92.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 BETA 09/20/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.39 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.33 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.23 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.27 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.65 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.25 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.73 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 13.9% 9.3% 7.0% 3.8% 8.4% 10.2% 10.5% Logistic: 1.7% 4.1% 3.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.0% 4.1% 2.8% 1.4% 3.0% 3.5% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 BETA 09/20/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 BETA 09/20/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 50 50 50 50 49 36 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 49 49 49 49 48 35 30 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 46 46 45 32 27 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 40 39 26 21 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT