* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/20/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 96 96 94 90 88 83 62 39 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 98 96 96 94 90 88 83 62 36 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 97 94 92 90 93 93 73 47 34 31 31 34 38 45 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 6 8 33 47 41 41 42 35 31 37 45 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -6 0 4 8 11 0 6 4 8 5 4 9 11 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 311 328 313 277 206 196 174 182 185 192 214 246 243 228 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.2 26.7 26.7 27.7 24.0 17.3 13.4 9.3 10.1 8.7 9.1 9.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 135 126 122 123 136 100 75 71 69 69 67 66 66 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 122 116 109 106 109 118 87 70 68 68 67 65 64 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.3 -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -49.6 -49.3 -48.6 -49.3 -50.1 -51.0 -52.1 -53.0 -54.1 -53.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.6 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.2 1.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 8 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 52 53 58 59 60 54 60 64 63 69 71 68 66 68 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 40 39 38 40 39 44 52 54 45 35 28 23 25 22 25 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 94 109 142 158 210 189 179 193 180 196 172 157 96 78 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 31 48 48 55 70 163 96 117 95 94 97 70 55 -16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 6 14 66 2 -11 -45 -32 -44 56 98 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1107 1159 1217 1311 1326 1105 709 363 99 -17 209 669 1111 1459 1462 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.3 29.0 29.9 30.8 33.8 37.6 41.1 44.3 47.8 51.4 55.0 57.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.6 62.1 62.6 62.6 62.7 62.3 62.3 62.5 61.0 57.6 52.5 46.1 40.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 9 12 17 18 17 19 22 26 24 19 16 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 20 13 9 3 5 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -25. -36. -47. -56. -63. -69. -75. -79. -80. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -6. -13. -16. -17. -17. -15. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. 2. 11. 14. 3. -11. -22. -29. -27. -31. -26. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -6. -10. -12. -17. -38. -61. -78. -90. -93.-104.-106.-108.-111. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 27.6 61.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 660.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.17 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.4% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 19( 37) 16( 47) 12( 53) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 98 96 96 94 90 88 83 62 36 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 97 97 95 91 89 84 63 37 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 96 94 90 88 83 62 36 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 88 84 82 77 56 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 77 75 70 49 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 98 89 83 80 76 74 69 48 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 98 96 87 81 77 75 70 49 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS