* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BETA AL222020 09/20/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 52 51 51 50 46 44 43 40 40 36 36 33 29 27 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 52 51 51 50 46 34 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 49 48 47 46 43 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 15 15 17 17 18 17 16 17 34 42 44 29 31 31 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 -1 1 1 -5 -1 -6 2 0 1 0 -1 -4 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 234 245 248 241 245 255 232 259 258 251 237 225 220 241 247 256 234 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.7 30.1 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 161 163 163 158 160 168 165 169 169 168 165 163 162 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 134 135 136 138 137 131 132 138 136 141 142 137 133 132 131 119 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -51.6 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 2 2 0 2 1 3 2 5 2 6 2 7 3 8 700-500 MB RH 51 49 51 52 54 57 59 58 51 49 49 51 45 41 37 39 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 20 19 18 17 13 10 10 8 9 9 9 7 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 19 12 20 14 -9 11 -19 -14 -29 4 -18 -11 -19 -52 -88 -84 200 MB DIV 32 21 20 29 29 39 37 13 17 4 24 11 -13 -11 -17 6 26 700-850 TADV 13 11 3 11 13 6 9 4 -2 4 9 4 0 3 6 0 25 LAND (KM) 293 289 279 256 214 116 52 4 -24 -17 -43 -117 -177 -241 -308 -417 -525 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.7 29.2 29.5 30.1 30.8 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.2 92.6 93.0 93.5 93.9 94.9 95.5 95.7 95.4 94.7 93.9 92.9 92.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 38 36 38 46 54 54 42 49 47 32 7 5 5 5 5 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 15. 17. 18. 19. 18. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -18. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -14. -18. -21. -24. -23. -25. -24. -26. -28. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -4. -6. -7. -10. -10. -14. -14. -17. -21. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.8 92.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 BETA 09/20/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.39 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.29 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.71 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.58 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.65 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.56 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.27 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 18.1% 11.7% 8.8% 5.7% 9.9% 12.0% 11.4% Logistic: 5.4% 17.4% 17.0% 10.7% 2.6% 4.8% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 11.8% 9.6% 6.5% 2.8% 4.9% 4.2% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 BETA 09/20/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 BETA 09/20/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 51 52 51 51 50 46 34 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 50 51 50 50 49 45 33 30 28 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 46 46 45 41 29 26 24 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 39 38 34 22 19 17 15 15 15 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT