* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BETA AL222020 09/19/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 52 52 52 53 51 51 50 49 48 46 42 41 40 39 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 52 52 52 53 51 51 38 35 31 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 49 49 47 45 44 42 34 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 20 18 15 16 15 15 14 16 18 36 37 39 23 25 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 3 -1 -2 0 -4 0 -3 2 -1 2 2 -1 -2 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 230 227 225 246 249 233 254 229 255 240 238 232 231 231 260 242 266 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.8 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 161 161 163 165 161 156 158 163 165 164 169 165 164 162 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 136 136 136 137 138 134 128 130 135 137 137 140 135 134 133 126 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -52.3 -52.9 -53.8 -54.3 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 2 1 3 0 2 1 3 1 3 2 5 2 6 0 700-500 MB RH 59 55 50 47 50 54 59 60 58 54 54 54 52 47 41 34 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 21 21 20 19 16 14 13 12 11 12 11 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 38 44 30 18 14 4 -17 15 -19 -12 -30 -8 -13 12 10 -65 -120 200 MB DIV 55 40 32 23 21 33 30 44 12 20 18 34 26 0 -36 -16 -9 700-850 TADV 5 9 16 10 4 12 7 8 2 -1 1 6 10 -2 0 -10 -8 LAND (KM) 332 312 290 273 237 155 98 44 6 -7 -3 -8 -70 -108 -182 -307 -429 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.8 30.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.4 92.7 93.0 93.4 93.8 94.7 95.4 96.0 96.0 95.5 94.8 93.8 92.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 5 5 4 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 44 40 40 44 55 69 44 36 45 53 46 22 5 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -8. -12. -15. -18. -19. -19. -20. -20. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -9. -10. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.5 92.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 BETA 09/19/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.31 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.43 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.41 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.63 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.57 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 15.2% 10.0% 7.4% 4.3% 9.0% 11.4% 12.2% Logistic: 1.3% 2.2% 1.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.8% 4.0% 2.7% 1.5% 3.2% 3.9% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 BETA 09/19/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 BETA 09/19/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 51 52 52 52 53 51 51 38 35 31 29 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 50 51 51 51 52 50 50 37 34 30 28 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 47 47 48 46 46 33 30 26 24 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 40 41 39 39 26 23 19 17 15 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT