* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BETA AL222020 09/19/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 64 66 68 69 69 69 65 58 57 56 53 48 47 45 V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 64 66 68 69 69 69 65 58 57 46 36 30 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 57 63 67 68 67 67 66 65 63 60 59 49 37 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 17 18 21 14 14 12 12 12 16 19 33 42 43 28 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 5 2 0 -3 -1 -4 2 -5 0 -2 3 -2 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 211 235 223 214 213 237 223 242 212 237 237 251 239 230 232 260 263 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 167 164 162 165 167 167 162 162 162 168 170 170 168 156 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 148 142 138 136 139 141 140 133 133 134 140 144 146 141 129 119 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -52.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 4 4 1 3 0 2 0 3 1 5 2 6 2 6 700-500 MB RH 68 63 61 56 52 56 59 64 66 64 60 56 52 47 42 37 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 20 23 22 21 21 20 19 16 13 12 13 15 13 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 48 27 34 50 38 18 19 -6 17 -17 -7 -24 1 -3 14 -16 -92 200 MB DIV 47 40 42 40 37 23 47 34 46 25 8 15 29 2 3 -43 -24 700-850 TADV 1 10 6 14 13 5 13 10 6 2 0 2 5 1 -8 2 0 LAND (KM) 476 422 368 351 329 305 232 170 119 79 39 7 -7 -61 -143 -192 -281 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.6 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.6 28.0 28.4 28.9 29.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.4 92.3 92.3 92.5 92.7 93.4 94.3 95.1 95.6 95.7 95.6 95.3 94.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 4 3 3 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 6 8 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 90 73 56 46 45 50 72 74 45 39 44 56 34 5 5 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 338 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -8. -12. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -12. -14. -12. -11. -12. -14. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 15. 8. 7. 6. 3. -2. -3. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 25.1 92.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 BETA 09/19/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.87 10.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.32 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.42 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.33 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.77 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.71 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.65 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.35 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.3% 37.8% 24.8% 13.6% 6.3% 12.3% 25.4% 24.2% Logistic: 20.1% 40.1% 32.0% 16.9% 5.3% 16.4% 6.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 6.4% 1.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% 0.0% Consensus: 16.0% 26.6% 19.3% 10.4% 3.9% 9.7% 11.0% 8.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 BETA 09/19/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 BETA 09/19/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 55 59 64 66 68 69 69 69 65 58 57 46 36 30 28 27 18HR AGO 50 49 53 58 60 62 63 63 63 59 52 51 40 30 24 22 21 12HR AGO 50 47 46 51 53 55 56 56 56 52 45 44 33 23 17 15 DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 44 45 45 45 41 34 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT