* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/18/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 106 105 105 101 98 95 91 92 76 54 36 21 16 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 110 109 106 105 105 101 98 95 91 92 76 49 36 21 26 28 N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 107 105 104 103 100 93 94 94 87 57 34 30 29 29 37 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 19 16 9 13 5 14 42 54 50 26 36 36 29 25 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 -4 -5 -1 0 -3 3 10 13 -5 5 0 0 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 231 228 227 235 262 280 292 222 191 190 169 186 207 201 218 226 239 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.4 27.4 27.8 27.0 25.5 18.6 17.3 13.4 10.8 8.1 7.3 9.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 152 154 152 143 129 136 127 112 77 73 68 66 65 64 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 139 140 137 126 113 119 112 97 71 68 65 64 63 63 63 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -50.4 -50.0 -49.9 -50.0 -50.2 -49.1 -48.5 -48.1 -49.2 -49.8 -50.8 -51.9 -54.5 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.5 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 43 43 46 44 46 55 61 59 53 56 58 61 72 71 68 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 39 40 38 38 39 40 40 40 45 53 47 37 29 21 21 22 17 850 MB ENV VOR 82 83 69 66 54 52 119 173 215 205 194 238 228 196 171 98 84 200 MB DIV 58 43 33 2 17 3 62 59 84 154 67 90 70 48 58 69 26 700-850 TADV 11 16 20 23 5 0 -3 10 21 99 2 -7 -1 2 2 7 38 LAND (KM) 1061 1037 1031 1037 1061 1151 1318 1226 896 510 214 -33 106 63 -16 254 524 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.5 24.4 25.3 26.2 28.0 29.9 32.4 35.8 39.5 42.8 45.5 48.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.6 57.4 58.2 59.0 59.9 61.5 62.4 62.5 62.4 62.5 62.4 62.1 60.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 14 18 17 15 13 14 14 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 31 27 30 45 38 23 10 15 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -12. -22. -31. -38. -48. -56. -63. -71. -76. -79. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -5. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 4. 14. 6. -9. -21. -30. -29. -28. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -5. -5. -9. -12. -15. -19. -18. -34. -56. -74. -89. -94. -94.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 22.6 56.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 848.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 4.6% 3.9% 3.5% 1.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 27( 48) 27( 62) 23( 71) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 24 31( 48) 64( 81) 15( 84) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 109 106 105 105 101 98 95 91 92 76 49 36 21 26 28 DIS 18HR AGO 110 109 106 105 105 101 98 95 91 92 76 49 36 21 26 28 DIS 12HR AGO 110 107 106 105 105 101 98 95 91 92 76 49 36 21 26 28 DIS 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 100 96 93 90 86 87 71 44 31 16 21 23 DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 87 84 81 77 78 62 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 109 100 94 91 87 84 81 77 78 62 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 109 106 97 91 87 84 81 77 78 62 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS