* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYTWO AL222020 09/18/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 46 53 53 53 51 50 50 53 51 49 46 46 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 46 53 53 53 51 50 50 53 51 49 40 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 37 37 36 34 34 35 37 39 42 42 35 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 18 15 17 19 13 15 11 10 7 11 14 30 37 42 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 5 4 3 -1 -2 -6 0 -3 -1 -4 1 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 210 206 214 227 222 216 222 219 239 193 206 219 222 219 221 227 259 SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 169 169 169 168 168 165 160 158 158 158 161 165 169 170 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 153 150 149 146 141 143 139 134 131 130 131 133 137 142 144 143 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 5 3 4 1 2 0 2 1 4 3 6 3 6 2 700-500 MB RH 77 75 70 66 63 56 57 62 68 65 63 55 51 49 51 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 19 19 22 23 20 16 13 12 10 11 11 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 40 41 41 28 31 44 35 35 5 20 -9 0 -19 0 0 -30 -60 200 MB DIV 70 79 47 38 50 51 38 59 5 45 13 3 13 39 9 -5 -15 700-850 TADV -1 -1 4 11 9 24 6 8 5 0 -2 -2 0 2 1 -2 3 LAND (KM) 378 388 386 379 381 349 281 207 150 124 99 72 59 24 17 -28 -112 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.1 24.6 25.1 25.6 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.7 28.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.1 93.9 93.6 93.5 93.4 93.7 94.4 95.2 95.9 96.2 96.3 96.2 95.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 3 4 3 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 87 84 86 84 69 60 63 61 42 33 32 33 36 51 52 9 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -7. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 2. -2. -7. -10. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 23. 23. 23. 21. 20. 20. 23. 21. 19. 16. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.5 94.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 TWENTYTWO 09/18/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.53 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 82.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.56 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.39 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.56 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.85 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.93 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.43 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 19.1% 11.9% 8.1% 5.0% 9.2% 12.1% 17.2% Logistic: 9.0% 28.2% 17.7% 11.4% 4.5% 9.4% 5.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 16.4% 10.1% 6.6% 3.2% 6.2% 5.8% 5.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 TWENTYTWO 09/18/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 TWENTYTWO 09/18/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 39 46 53 53 53 51 50 50 53 51 49 40 32 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 43 50 50 50 48 47 47 50 48 46 37 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 38 45 45 45 43 42 42 45 43 41 32 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 37 37 37 35 34 34 37 35 33 24 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT