* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYTWO AL222020 09/18/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 55 65 73 76 77 77 79 76 69 66 65 66 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 55 65 73 76 77 77 79 76 69 66 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 38 44 51 55 58 61 63 64 62 60 61 64 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 8 12 9 13 13 13 5 6 1 7 7 10 12 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 0 3 1 5 -3 -1 -3 3 3 5 -4 1 0 5 SHEAR DIR 167 191 182 172 184 218 207 218 208 220 163 144 121 126 201 220 221 SST (C) 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 169 168 168 168 168 167 166 164 161 161 166 168 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 160 160 159 155 148 144 144 144 141 140 138 135 135 141 143 144 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -50.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 6 7 7 4 6 2 4 1 3 2 5 4 8 6 8 700-500 MB RH 76 79 79 76 72 64 57 56 60 68 66 64 61 62 64 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 12 13 13 16 18 20 20 20 20 21 19 14 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 45 43 39 45 42 32 50 36 33 10 30 7 13 5 12 3 12 200 MB DIV 56 54 58 60 47 36 43 29 54 35 49 7 15 -8 35 30 67 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 11 7 13 6 5 5 7 0 2 -2 1 LAND (KM) 313 344 383 428 441 436 425 371 310 240 191 144 128 133 169 231 294 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.8 25.3 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.2 94.0 93.8 93.5 93.3 93.0 93.0 93.5 94.1 94.8 95.3 95.8 96.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 4 2 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 83 87 92 90 85 91 84 68 68 70 62 50 45 46 63 83 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 38. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 7. -0. -2. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 25. 35. 43. 46. 47. 47. 49. 46. 39. 36. 35. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.0 94.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 TWENTYTWO 09/18/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.73 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 87.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.59 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.61 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.45 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.89 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 30.0 to 128.0 1.00 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.42 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 34.8% 21.5% 9.6% 6.5% 17.0% 24.2% 33.2% Logistic: 9.6% 43.8% 27.2% 17.2% 8.8% 20.4% 23.7% 9.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 7.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% Consensus: 6.0% 28.6% 16.7% 9.1% 5.2% 12.6% 16.1% 14.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 TWENTYTWO 09/18/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 TWENTYTWO 09/18/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 42 46 55 65 73 76 77 77 79 76 69 66 65 66 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 42 51 61 69 72 73 73 75 72 65 62 61 62 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 44 54 62 65 66 66 68 65 58 55 54 55 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 33 43 51 54 55 55 57 54 47 44 43 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT