* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP162020 09/16/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 32 28 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 36 32 28 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 36 32 28 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 10 13 15 16 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 127 152 177 197 197 206 210 210 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 24.9 24.4 23.9 23.3 22.9 22.9 23.1 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 111 106 100 94 89 89 91 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 1 1 1 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 46 46 45 40 34 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 19 18 17 13 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 49 45 43 41 18 18 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -19 -9 -4 -17 -9 -2 -10 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 7 7 7 9 7 13 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1099 1124 1154 1189 1226 1321 1428 1564 1699 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.9 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.3 23.2 22.7 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.3 124.1 124.8 125.4 126.0 127.2 128.3 129.5 130.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -18. -23. -23. -23. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -24. -31. -40. -47. -50. -52. -53. -54. -55. -55. -57. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.4 123.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162020 KARINA 09/16/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.34 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 328.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162020 KARINA 09/16/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##