* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP162020 09/15/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 43 39 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 43 39 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 49 46 43 39 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 15 13 11 13 16 20 19 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 2 1 2 5 3 0 -2 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 80 113 145 172 191 191 195 198 211 212 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.7 25.3 25.0 24.5 23.5 23.1 23.0 23.2 23.5 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 116 112 107 95 91 90 92 95 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 51 49 45 42 38 32 26 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 22 21 19 16 13 11 7 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 45 51 48 47 31 8 8 5 21 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 -5 -23 -28 -11 0 -2 -9 -12 -15 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 6 5 8 9 10 11 11 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1066 1075 1092 1117 1148 1207 1294 1392 1522 1648 1769 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.5 23.2 23.5 23.4 23.0 22.5 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.7 122.5 123.3 124.1 124.8 125.9 127.0 128.0 129.2 130.3 131.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -16. -23. -26. -29. -28. -25. -23. -21. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -11. -19. -28. -37. -48. -54. -61. -61. -62. -62. -63. -65. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.4 121.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162020 KARINA 09/15/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.34 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 386.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162020 KARINA 09/15/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##